NEW YORK, NY, February 21, 2008 - In a paper published by the leading scientific journal Nature, scientists at the Consortium for Conservation Medicine (CCM) Wildlife Trust New York, the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), Columbia University (New York) and the University of Georgia have announced a major breakthrough in the understanding of what causes diseases like HIV/AIDS and SARS to emerge, and how to further predict and prevent future devastating pandemics by plotting a global map of "Emerging Disease Hotspots."

The research provides the first-ever definitive proof that emerging diseases are on the rise, and that zoonoses - diseases that originate in animals - are the current and most important threat to humans. Scientists analyzed 335 incidents of previous disease emergence to identify the regions where future diseases are most likely to erupt. Emerging diseases are diseases that appear in people or move into new regions for the first time. They include diseases such as West Nile virus, SARS, Ebola, H5N1 Avian influenza and others that emerge from animals. Disease emergence also occurs in developed nations due to antibiotic multi-drug resistance, leading to diseases such as extremely drug-resistant TB (XDR TB) and also from centralized food processing, and other technologies.

Emerging diseases have caused devastating outbreaks internationally, and some have become pandemic, spreading from one continent to another causing massive mortality rates and affecting global economies and livelihoods. The HIV/AIDS pandemic has led to over 65 million people infected worldwide, and the financial cost of the SARS outbreak is estimated between $50 and $100 billion. Despite billions of dollars of research over the past three decades, previous attempts to explain the seemingly random patterns of emergence and spread were unsuccessful. This research examines over 50 years of disease emergence patterns and provides the first set of insights into where future outbreaks may occur.

In this study, scientists from four major institutions combined forces to build a database of all previously reported emerging diseases. In this three-year study, they researched and identified the most likely point of origin and underlying cause of each separate emergence event. The team then used sophisticated computer models to analyze whether the pattern of emerging diseases correlated with global patterns in human population density, changes in population, latitude, rainfall, and wildlife biodiversity. Finally, results were plotted against a measure of global effort to identify new diseases, to produce the first maps of where the next new emerging diseases are likely to originate. "This Emerging Disease Hotspots map is the first to provide a scientific prediction of where the next major disease like HIV or SARS will emerge", says Dr. Peter Daszak, corresponding author of the paper and Executive Director of the Consortium for Conservation Medicine at Wildlife Trust, New York. "These maps show that the key threat to public health is where human population growth and wildlife diversity clash", he added. Dr. Kate Jones, of ZSL, lead author of the paper, commented, "Our analysis highlights the critical importance of conservation work. Protecting areas rich in wildlife diversity from development may also have a significant effect in preventing future disease emergence".

The group's analyses reveal a range of other new information about this deadly threat to global health. They show that more diseases emerged in the 1980s than any other decade. "This is likely due to the global HIV/AIDS pandemic, which led to a range of other new diseases in people," says Marc Levy of CIESIN, Columbia University. Unfortunately, the overall trend is that emerging diseases have increased significantly from the 1940s to the current decade. "We also see a significant peak in vector-borne diseases in the 1990s, which may relate to climate change anomalies, but we can't be certain about the cause", Dr. Levy added.

Dr. John Gittleman, professor and dean in the University of Georgia's Odum School of Ecology, who developed this approach to analyzing global databases stated that, "This is a seminal moment in how we study emerging diseases. Our study has shown that bringing ecological sciences and public health together can advance the field in a dramatic way". The paper comments that the Emerging Disease Hotspots map provides a way to better allocate global resources to fight emerging diseases. "Our hotspots map show that the next new important zoonotic disease is likely to originate in the Tropics - a region rich in wildlife species and under increasing pressure from people," said Dr. Daszak. "The problem is, most of our resources are focused on the richer countries in the North that can afford surveillance - this is basically a misallocation of global health funding and our priority should be to set up 'smart surveillance' measures in these hotspots, most of which are in developing countries. If we continue to ignore this important preventative measure then human populations will continue to be at risk from pandemic diseases."

This study was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Human and Social Dynamics, Ecology), an NSF/NIH Ecology of Infectious Diseases award from the John E. Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health and by three private foundations including The New York Community Trust, The Eppley Foundation, and the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation.

About the Consortium for Conservation Medicine at Wildlife Trust

The Consortium for Conservation Medicine (CCM) at Wildlife Trust's New York headquarters, is a unique collaborative institution linking Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Tufts University School of Vet. Med. Center for Conservation Medicine, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Wildlife Trust and USGS National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC). The CCM is a think-tank for the origin, prediction and prevention of emerging diseases. The CCM enables scientists from a multitude of disciplines to collaborate on key issues of human, animal and environmental health and conservation. To learn more please go to www.conservationmedicine.org.

About Wildlife Trust

Wildlife Trust empowers local conservation scientists worldwide to protect nature and safeguard ecosystem and human health. Wildlife Trust is a conservation science innovator and leverages research expertise through strategic global alliances. Wildlife Trust pioneered the field of Conservation Medicine, a new discipline that addresses the link between ecological disruption of habitats and the effects on wildlife, livestock and human health.

Founded in 1971 by British naturalist and author Gerald Durrell, Wildlife Trust has built its reputation on 35 years of global research, education, training and experience. Research and conservation work in the United States include programs in the metropolitan New York area, Florida and along the coast of the Southeastern U.S.

Internationally, Wildlife Trust trains and supports a network of scientists around the world to save endangered species and their habitats and to protect the health of vital ecosystems. Wildlife Trust created the first egalitarian international network of science-based conservation organizations called the Wildlife Trust Alliance and is a founding partner organization of the Consortium for Conservation Medicine, a unique think-tank of prestigious academic institutions.

Visit www.wildlifetrust.org to read more.

Media Contact:
Anthony Ramos, Wildlife Trust
Director for Marketing & Communications
ramos@wildlifetrust.org
212/380-4469

# # #